Smart Heuristics: The Adaptive Intelligence Of The Unconscious

Short Cuts reveals the secrets of fast and effective decision-making. Gerd Gigerenzer, critically acclaimed author of Reckoning with Risk, analyses the heuristics that people actually use to make good decisions and shows us how we can become better decision-makers ourselves. In order to make a good decision in an uncertain world, one sometimes has to ignore information. The art is knowing what one doesn't have to know. Consider, for example, how players catch a ball. It may seem that they have to solve complex differential equations in their heads to predict the trajectory of a ball. In fact, players use a simple heuristic. When a ball comes in high, the player fixates the ball and starts running. The heuristic is to adjust the running speed so that the angle of gaze remains constant - that is, the angle between the eye and the ball.

Gigerenzer reveals the truth about everything from personnel selection to stock picking - even coronary unit decisons. This book will change the way people see the world.